Red Hat Analysis is a technique based on practices originally developed by military forces while conducting war gaming. One common thinking error that analysts is make, is assuming that an enemy thinks like we do. This is also known as “mirror imaging” and is also affected by a lack of cultural training.
Red Hat Analysis is best performed with two or more analysts. The first analyst will be the “blue team”, also called BLUFOR, or the friendly nation. Their role will be to decide how the local government would respond given what we know about our own culture.
The other analyst will be the “Red Team” or OPFOR (Opposing Force). Their role will be to take their cultural intelligence, knowledge of previous activities by the same group, and all other intelligence available and decide how that individual or group would respond.
Red Hat Analysis can be useful but is difficult to perform without a significant understanding of another culture. This may require language training, reading of local materials and other work prior to beginning a Red Team Analysis. At the conclusion of this analysis (once the results have been seen), it is important to update the analysis and incorporate information into future analyses to improve their accuracy.