Introduction The Premortem Analysis is a simple way to begin an intelligence analysis project. This is a brainstorming technique that may be effective when you’re asked to give a briefing on very short-term basis with limited information and allows you to question the assumptions underpinning your analysis. The below information is based on steps originally outlined by…
Tag: intelligence analysis
Delphi Technique
Introduction There are a number of techniques for making predictions or analysis. It is particularly useful in governments, public policy, and other areas where facts may be disputed but generally based on a set of common foundational knowledge. Examples of this type include economics (where the same economic principles may be expressed differently by country),…
Terrorist Attack Pre-incident Indicators (TAPI)
Introduction Terrorist attacks, like other forms of crime are often preceded by indicators that indicate that something that may lead to a terrorist attack is underway. A challenge of intelligence analysis, as well as risk and threat assessments is identifying these indicators among the noise of cities where terrorists can blend into the local culture….
SLEIPNIR Assessment Tool
Introduction SLEIPNIR is a tool developed by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) and used in criminal intelligence analysis to assist in the ranking and comparison of the threat of organized crime groups. SLEIPNIR is an example of a structured professional judgement (SPJ) tool similar to the SAVRY. By using the Sleipnir tool you can…
Key Assumptions Check
Introduction The Key Assumptions Check is a simple way to begin an intelligence analysis or research project. Despite its simplicity, it is also extremely powerful, because it allows us to question the underlying assumptions that we make influencing our decisions and thought processes. Because of confirmation bias, we often exclude information from our worldview or…